Week 2 stakes rise as SMU hosts Baylor
Two very different Week 1 stories converge in Dallas. No. 17 SMU smashed a tune-up opponent. Baylor took its punch from an SEC team but still flashed firepower. Now the line sits at SMU -2.5 to -3, kickoff is 12:00 PM ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, and The CW has the broadcast. If you’re circling one early window game, make it SMU vs Baylor.
Oddsmakers opened a hair toward the Mustangs and haven’t moved much: SMU sits around -139 to -150 on the moneyline, with Baylor +117 to +130. The total rests between 64.5 and 65.5. Translation: books expect points, but not a track meet. The market is giving SMU a modest home bump — essentially saying these teams are near equals on a neutral field.
Projection models split. FOX Sports’ Data Skrive model leans SMU by a touchdown (33–27). Dimers.com’s 10,000-run simulation splits the win probability 50–50 and spits out a 32–32 dead heat on average. When models disagree, it’s usually about pace, red zone finishing, and how much weight to give Baylor’s Week 1 opponent versus SMU’s.
Let’s set the frames. Baylor fell 38–24 to Auburn but found a quarterback ceiling: Sawyer Robertson fired for 419 yards and three scores (27-of-48). Kole Wilson worked the outside with eight grabs for 134 yards; tight end Michael Trigg added seven for 99 and a touchdown. The sore spot? Just two touchdowns on five red zone trips. That left points — and pressure — on the field.
SMU rolled 42–13 over East Texas A&M, the kind of opener where Rhett Lashlee’s tempo and spacing overwhelm. The Mustangs looked fast and clean. They will not see the same soft windows against Baylor’s secondary or the same cushion up front. The real diagnostic starts now.
Odds, matchups and the path to a cover
The spread’s tiny for a reason. Baylor under Dave Aranda tends to hang around in one-score games, and their recent run versus in-state opponents is strong: four straight wins and covers against Texas teams. SMU, meanwhile, has struggled against Big 12 opponents, failing to cover in four of its last five. Trends aren’t destiny, but they do hint at physicality and depth — the areas that usually decide coin-flip lines.
- Baylor passing game vs. SMU secondary: Robertson attacked Auburn at every level. If Baylor protects well enough to hit explosive plays to Wilson and Trigg, SMU’s defense will have to trade yards for stops. That’s where red zone defense matters most.
- Red zone finishing: Baylor’s 2-for-5 touchdown mark last week made a 14-point loss look worse than the yardage said. SMU’s red zone defense just held six drives to 13 points in its opener. That’s encouraging, even if the competition wasn’t Baylor-level.
- Tempo and first-down success: Lashlee wants quick snaps and simple answers. If SMU wins first down, the Mustangs set the terms — RPOs, quick screens, and shot plays off a steady run threat. If Baylor wins early downs, the pace slows and third-and-long tilts to the Bears’ pressure packages.
- Trenches and tackles: Baylor’s front seven must win at or behind the line. If the Mustangs run efficiently, the Bears’ safeties get stressed and the middle of the field opens. On the flip side, SMU’s pass rush needs to hurry Robertson without giving up contain lanes that become scramble explosives.
- Key absences: Keep an eye on SMU linebacker Alexander Kilgore’s status. If he’s limited or out, it’s a hit to the Mustangs’ tackling and sub-package flexibility.
Context matters beyond one Saturday. SMU now lives in the ACC, where speed in space is the business model. Baylor’s Big 12 slate still leans on week-to-week variability, but Aranda’s defenses are usually well-drilled and matchup-specific. This is also a renewal of an old Southwest Conference flavor — not a true rivalry game in 2025, but familiar enough that the stands will have an edge.
So why has the number parked under a field goal? SMU gets the rank and home field. Baylor gets the harder Week 1 test and the better box score against a tougher opponent. If you’re pricing it, you ask: do you trust the Mustangs’ firepower to travel from a tune-up to a real defense? Or do you trust Baylor to cash touchdowns this week instead of field goals?
There’s also the timing. Noon ET/11 a.m. local kickoffs can dampen rhythm. Early drives tend to be scripted and tidy. After that, depth and explosives take over. SMU’s speed at receiver against Baylor’s corners is a swing point; Baylor’s tight end usage against SMU’s linebackers is another.
What the models miss is variance inside the 20s. Baylor’s five red zone trips were not flukes; that’s sustainable movement. The question is conversion. Turn two of those Auburn field-goal drives into touchdowns and Baylor’s opener looks like a 38–31 dogfight instead of a two-score loss. SMU’s defense, though, just showed poise in tight spaces, rallying and tackling without panic. That travels better than most traits.
Coaching chessboard: Lashlee wants pace, clean answers for his quarterback, and manufactured matchups for his top targets. Aranda will show rotations late, roll safeties into windows, and ask Robertson to stack patient throws without the killer mistake. The first turnover likely swings a full win probability tier in a game lined under a field goal.
Betting angles to consider:
- Number discipline: -2.5 is very different from -3.5. The market’s mostly 2.5 to 3 — shop for the hook if you like Baylor or lay 2.5 if you like SMU.
- Total tolerance: 64.5–65.5 implies both teams in the low 30s. If you believe Baylor’s red zone fortune flips, the Over gets value. If you think SMU’s defense holds in tight spaces and limits explosives, the Under catches late steam.
- Game script hedges: SMU live moneyline if Baylor starts fast (Robertson heat-check drive or two). Baylor live if SMU jumps ahead and you expect red zone regression to hit the Mustangs late.
What I need to see early: SMU’s protection against Baylor’s first two pressure looks, and whether Robertson gets his easy throws (boundary access, quick outs, stick). If Baylor can steal a cheap touchdown in the first quarter — a short field off special teams or a coverage bust — the stress shifts to SMU’s pace to solve.
Prediction: SMU 34, Baylor 33. That’s a lean to SMU on the moneyline, Baylor to cover, and a slight tilt to the Over at 65.5 or better. It lands on the knife-edge the market expects, shaped by red zone swings and one late stop. If Kilgore sits, nudge Baylor’s team total up a tick. If SMU wins the explosives count by two or more, the Mustangs finally create the gap the spread refuses to show.
However it breaks, it’s a September measuring stick for both programs — SMU to validate the number by its name, Baylor to prove Week 1’s missed chances were fixable timing, not fatal flaws.
about author Caspian Wainwright
Hello, my name is Caspian Wainwright, and I'm an environmental expert dedicated to preserving our planet's natural resources. I'm passionate about researching and implementing sustainable practices to minimize our ecological footprint. With a degree in Environmental Science, I have the knowledge and experience to address various environmental challenges. I enjoy writing articles and blog posts to raise awareness on pressing environmental issues and to inspire others to adopt eco-friendly habits in their daily lives. My goal is to contribute to a greener future for generations to come.